Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estoril · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estoril 1-2 Casa Pia
Original prediction
Estoril
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 55.2% | 52.2% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.8% | 25.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.72 | 20.0% | 22.3% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Estoril
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Estoril has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EstorilLDLLL
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Casa PiaLDLLL
GF 1 · GA 14 · avg 0.20/2.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
EstorilCasa Pia
11.1Attack5.6
55.6Defence16.7
11.1Form5.6
29.5Power13.2
1.54xG0.84