Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arouca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estoril 0-0 Arouca
Original prediction
Arouca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 37.3% | 26.9% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 28.0% | 26.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 34.7% | 46.6% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Arouca
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Arouca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EstorilLLLDD
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
AroucaWLWWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
EstorilArouca
16.7Attack58.3
41.7Defence75.0
8.3Form75.0
26.3Power69.1
0.86xG1.67