Eniseyvs
Arsenal Tula
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 9/16/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Enisey · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Enisey 3-1 Arsenal Tula
Original prediction
Enisey
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 41.6% | 43.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.4% | 26.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 29.0% | 30.8% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Enisey
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Enisey has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EniseyLDLDL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Arsenal TulaDLLDL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EniseyArsenal Tula
36.7Attack33.3
40.0Defence42.4
33.3Form39.4
38.6Power41.1
1.34xG1.10