Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palermo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Empoli 2-4 Palermo
Original prediction
Palermo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.69 | 25.3% | 24.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.8% | 27.0% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 47.9% | 48.3% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Palermo
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Palermo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EmpoliLLWLW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PalermoWDWWW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
EmpoliPalermo
26.7Attack66.7
60.0Defence66.7
40.0Form86.7
45.3Power76.7
0.84xG1.47