Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Empoli · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Empoli 0-1 Arezzo
Original prediction
Empoli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 45.9% | 37.7% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.1% | 29.3% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.72 | 25.1% | 33.0% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Empoli
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Empoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EmpoliWLWDD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
ArezzoLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EmpoliArezzo
41.2Attack50.0
52.6Defence50.0
36.0Form50.0
44.7Power50.0
1.20xG1.23