Elvavs
Nõmme Kalju II
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elva 1-0 Nõmme Kalju II
Original prediction
Elva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 67.4% | 75.5% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.8% | 13.5% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 6.20 | 14.8% | 11.0% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
75.5%
Model confidence
75.5%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ElvaWDWLW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Nõmme Kalju IIWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ElvaNõmme Kalju II
55.1Attack44.9
52.6Defence14.1
52.6Form28.2
54.8Power31.6
3.38xG1.13