Elvavs
FC Tallinn
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elva 1-1 FC Tallinn
Original prediction
Elva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.6% | 67.2% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 20.9% | 16.8% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 4.40 | 20.5% | 16.0% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ElvaWLWWD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
FC TallinnLWWLL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ElvaFC Tallinn
52.9Attack43.7
50.6Defence26.4
54.0Form35.6
53.9Power37.4
2.72xG1.17