Elgin Cityvs
Dundee II
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elgin City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elgin City 3-0 Dundee II
Original prediction
Elgin City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 81.1% | 65.9% | -15.2 pts |
| Draw | 7.50 | 12.1% | 18.2% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 13.33 | 6.8% | 16.0% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Elgin City
Probability
65.9%
Model confidence
65.9%
Elgin City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00