Elgin Cityvs
Aberdeen U21
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elgin City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elgin City 0-1 Aberdeen U21
Original prediction
Elgin City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.7% | 56.5% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.1% | 21.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.2% | 22.2% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Elgin City
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Elgin City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60