East Kilbridevs
Kelty Hearts
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
East Kilbride · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-2 (7%), 2-2 (6%), 3-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
East Kilbride 2-1 Kelty Hearts
Original prediction
East Kilbride
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.9% | 51.7% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.96 | 18.3% | 20.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 5.72 | 15.9% | 28.1% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–27%
- 2.2–26%
- 3.3–36%
Predicted outcome
East Kilbride
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
East Kilbride has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20