East Kilbridevs
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
East Kilbride · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
East Kilbride 3-1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Original prediction
East Kilbride
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.4% | 46.7% | -18.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 19.3% | 24.0% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 5.88 | 15.3% | 29.2% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
East Kilbride
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
East Kilbride has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80