Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
12%
MediumconfidenceDurango are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (LWW), averaging 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Durango hold a 36.8-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Liga de Expansión MX, favouring a draw with 12.1% confidence, a 53% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
25.3%
Model confidence
12.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DurangoLWW
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.67/1.00
BTTS 0/3O2.5 1/3
TlaxcalaLLLDD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DurangoTlaxcala
22.2Attack33.3
66.7Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
55.1Power18.3
1.82xG0.98