Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Durango · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Durango are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LLWW), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded, while Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 3.6-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Durango holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Durango
Probability
34.6%
Model confidence
34.6%
Durango has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.50/1.25
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80