Dumbartonvs
Kilmarnock II
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dumbarton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dumbarton 3-2 Kilmarnock II
Original prediction
Dumbarton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 60.0% | 40.4% | -19.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 20.8% | 23.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.71 | 19.2% | 36.5% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Dumbarton
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Dumbarton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00