Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dumbarton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dumbarton are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Celtic II are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 3.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Dumbarton hold a 16.0-point power-rating edge (31.3 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.5% in the Challenge Cup, while Dumbarton holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dumbarton
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
10.5%
Dumbarton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 16 · GA 11 · avg 3.20/2.20