Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Druzhba · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Druzhba 4-0 Izberbash
Original prediction
Druzhba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.5% | 54.7% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.1% | 24.8% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 26.4% | 20.5% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Druzhba
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Druzhba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DruzhbaLWWDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
IzberbashDDWLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
DruzhbaIzberbash
41.7Attack29.3
59.7Defence20.0
50.0Form30.7
52.1Power29.8
2.18xG0.61