Drogheda Unitedvs
Galway United
COMPLETEDIreland · FAI Cup · 9/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Drogheda United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Drogheda United 1-2 Galway United
Original prediction
Drogheda United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.4% | 42.0% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.8% | 26.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.8% | 31.9% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Drogheda United
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Drogheda United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80