Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dorados 3-1 Tapatío
Original prediction
Dorados
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.9% | 42.7% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.0% | 23.8% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DoradosWLLDD
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TapatíoLDWWL
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
DoradosTapatío
66.7Attack57.1
44.4Defence47.6
44.4Form52.4
52.2Power54.7
1.98xG1.63