Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dorados 0-5 Piratas
Original prediction
Piratas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.27 | 21.4% | 27.4% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.6% | 24.4% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 55.0% | 48.2% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DoradosWLLLD
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PiratasWLWLW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
DoradosPiratas
59.0Attack53.8
38.5Defence64.1
41.0Form53.8
47.4Power56.8
1.33xG1.88