Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Piratas are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (LWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 9.1-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 58.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.50