Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dorados 0-1 Monarcas
Original prediction
Monarcas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 30.4% | 34.4% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.9% | 24.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.7% | 41.0% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DoradosLDDWW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MonarcasLWWLW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
DoradosMonarcas
66.7Attack73.3
33.3Defence46.7
41.7Form60.0
48.8Power60.3
1.82xG1.99