Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Dorados are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Durango are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LLWW), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 12.9-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 55.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.50/1.25