Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Domagnano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Domagnano 0-0 Faetano, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Domagnano 3-1 Faetano
Original prediction
Domagnano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.3% | 44.2% | -26.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 18.5% | 27.7% | 9.2 pts |
| Away | 7.97 | 11.3% | 28.1% | 16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.0 pts
Projected Score
Domagnano 0–0 Faetano
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Domagnano
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Domagnano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DomagnanoWWLWL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FaetanoLLLLW
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
DomagnanoFaetano
25.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
33.3Form33.3
43.3Power48.3
1.01xG0.96