Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Diriangén · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Diriangén 1-0 Jalapa, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Diriangén 2-0 Jalapa
Original prediction
Diriangén
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.1% | 61.0% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.56 | 19.9% | 22.8% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 7.56 | 12.0% | 16.2% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Projected Score
Diriangén 1–0 Jalapa
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Diriangén
Probability
61.0%
Model confidence
61.0%
Diriangén has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DiriangénWLLWL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
JalapaLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
DiriangénJalapa
60.0Attack11.1
73.3Defence55.6
73.3Form16.7
70.9Power31.0
1.79xG0.63