Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Dila 1-0 Gagra, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Dila 1-0 Gagra
Original prediction
Dila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 54.9% | 51.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 28.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.67 | 19.4% | 20.5% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Projected Score
Dila 1–0 Gagra
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Dila
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Dila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DilaLWDWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GagraWDLDD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DilaGagra
40.9Attack33.3
63.6Defence56.5
45.5Form39.1
51.7Power45.3
1.17xG0.65