Derry Cityvs
Dundalk
COMPLETEDIreland · FAI Cup · 9/6/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derry City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derry City 4-2 Dundalk
Original prediction
Derry City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 48.6% | 42.4% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.7% | 25.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 25.7% | 32.0% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Derry City
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Derry City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60