Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby 1-1 Wrexham
Original prediction
Wrexham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 31.6% | 31.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.8% | 29.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 39.6% | 38.7% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DerbyDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
WrexhamWLDDW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DerbyWrexham
29.2Attack37.5
41.7Defence50.0
20.8Form41.7
33.0Power43.8
1.00xG1.26