Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Brom · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby 0-1 West Brom
Original prediction
West Brom
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.43 | 27.4% | 26.0% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 28.1% | 26.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 44.5% | 48.0% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
West Brom
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
West Brom has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DerbyLWLDL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
West BromWDLLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
DerbyWest Brom
33.3Attack53.3
33.3Defence60.0
26.7Form66.7
33.5Power62.3
1.03xG1.71