Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby 0-3 Swansea
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.9% | 35.3% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.9% | 28.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 30.2% | 36.4% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DerbyDLLDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SwanseaDWLWL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
DerbySwansea
50.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence83.3
16.7Form66.7
36.5Power64.8
1.20xG1.36