Derbyvs
Stoke City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stoke City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby 0-1 Stoke City
Original prediction
Stoke City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 32.7% | 20.4% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.7% | 21.1% | -6.6 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 39.6% | 58.5% | 18.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Stoke City
Probability
58.5%
Model confidence
58.5%
Stoke City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40