Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derby · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby 2-2 Cardiff
Original prediction
Derby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.3-draw-refit.
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Derby
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Derby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DerbyLLDLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CardiffDWWWW
GF 19 · GA 6 · avg 3.80/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
DerbyCardiff
33.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form33.3
23.7Power45.3
1.25xG1.31