Derbyvs
Birmingham
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/12/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby 1-2 Birmingham
Original prediction
Birmingham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.45 | 27.1% | 28.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.7% | 28.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 44.1% | 43.2% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40