Deportivo Maldonadovs
Danubio
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/24/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Danubio, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 Danubio
Original prediction
Deportivo Maldonado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 08:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.8% | 56.8% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.4% | 25.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.82 | 23.9% | 17.3% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Projected Score
Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Danubio
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Maldonado
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60