Deportivo Maldonadovs
Cerro Largo
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/19/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Cerro Largo, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 Cerro Largo
Original prediction
Deportivo Maldonado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.2% | 54.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.1% | 27.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.90 | 18.6% | 17.9% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Projected Score
Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro Largo
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Maldonado
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20