Deportivo Maldonadovs
Central Espanol
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Central Espanol, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Maldonado 3-0 Central Espanol
Original prediction
Deportivo Maldonado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.4% | 56.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.1% | 25.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.96 | 18.5% | 17.7% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Projected Score
Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Central Espanol
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Maldonado
Probability
56.7%
Model confidence
56.7%
Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80