Defensor Sportingvs
Racing Montevideo
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/24/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Racing Montevideo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Defensor Sporting 0-0 Racing Montevideo, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensor Sporting 3-3 Racing Montevideo
Original prediction
Racing Montevideo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 08:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 31.0% | 25.0% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.8% | 32.2% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 39.2% | 42.8% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Projected Score
Defensor Sporting 0–0 Racing Montevideo
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Racing Montevideo
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Racing Montevideo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00