Defensor Sportingvs
Deportivo Maldonado
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Defensor Sporting 0-0 Deportivo Maldonado, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensor Sporting 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado
Original prediction
Deportivo Maldonado
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 33.2% | 24.0% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.7% | 30.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 37.1% | 45.9% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Projected Score
Defensor Sporting 0–0 Deportivo Maldonado
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Maldonado
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60