Defensor Sportingvs
Danubio
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/27/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Defensor Sporting · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Defensor Sporting 0-0 Danubio, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio
Original prediction
Defensor Sporting
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.7% | 39.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.4% | 33.0% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 29.9% | 27.1% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Projected Score
Defensor Sporting 0–0 Danubio
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Defensor Sporting
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Defensor Sporting has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80