Defensor Sportingvs
Cerro
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Defensor Sporting · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Defensor Sporting 0-0 Cerro, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensor Sporting 2-3 Cerro
Original prediction
Defensor Sporting
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.5% | 47.2% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.6% | 31.5% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 21.0% | 21.3% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Projected Score
Defensor Sporting 0–0 Cerro
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Defensor Sporting
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Defensor Sporting has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40