Argentina · Reserve League · 9/15/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Defensa y Justicia Res. · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensa y Justicia Res. 2-3 Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Original prediction
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.3% | 51.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.5% | 25.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.20 | 21.3% | 23.4% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Defensa y Justicia Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00