DC Unitedvs
Columbus Crew
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/9/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
DC United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
DC United 2-1 Columbus Crew
Original prediction
DC United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 36.9% | 39.6% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.9% | 23.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 36.3% | 36.6% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
DC United
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
DC United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00