Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlotte · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
DC United 1-2 Charlotte
Original prediction
Charlotte
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 33.4% | 29.3% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.7% | 22.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 40.8% | 47.8% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Charlotte
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Charlotte has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DC UnitedDWDDL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CharlotteDWDWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DC UnitedCharlotte
41.7Attack60.0
48.6Defence52.0
40.3Form53.3
46.0Power55.9
1.26xG1.75