Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Danubio 1-1 Penarol
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.64 | 24.9% | 31.9% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.9% | 28.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 45.2% | 39.7% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DanubioDDLLL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PenarolWWWDL
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
DanubioPenarol
44.4Attack75.0
77.8Defence66.7
66.7Form75.0
64.7Power71.6
1.21xG1.32