Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Danubio 0-1 Penarol, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Danubio 0-4 Penarol
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.75 | 19.3% | 14.9% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.3% | 27.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 53.4% | 58.2% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Projected Score
Danubio 0–1 Penarol
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DanubioLLDDL
GF 0 · GA 4 · avg 0.00/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
PenarolLDWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DanubioPenarol
28.2Attack53.8
59.0Defence71.8
30.8Form64.1
41.3Power64.2
0.47xG1.30