Danubiovs
Cerro Largo
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Danubio 0-0 Cerro Largo, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Danubio 2-1 Cerro Largo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.9% | 33.7% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.1% | 33.2% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 25.1% | 33.1% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Projected Score
Danubio 0–0 Cerro Largo
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.2%
Model confidence
33.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DanubioLDDDL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Cerro LargoWLLDD
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
DanubioCerro Largo
26.7Attack31.1
56.7Defence62.2
28.9Form36.7
39.5Power45.1
0.64xG0.75