Cuscovs
Alianza Lima
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/11/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Lima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cusco 1-2 Alianza Lima
Original prediction
Alianza Lima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.7% | 26.5% | -14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.8% | 27.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.5% | 46.6% | 17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Lima
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Alianza Lima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20