Curico Unidovs
Concepción
COMPLETEDChile · Copa Chile · 9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Concepción · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Curico Unido 0-4 Concepción
Original prediction
Concepción
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.04 | 30.1% | 36.0% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.1% | 26.9% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 40.7% | 37.0% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Concepción
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Concepción has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60