Crystal Palacevs
Nottingham Forest
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nottingham Forest · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest
Original prediction
Nottingham Forest
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 34.9% | 33.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.6% | 27.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 36.4% | 38.7% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Nottingham Forest
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Nottingham Forest has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20