Crystal Palacevs
Newcastle
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/25/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 33.4% | 35.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.6% | 23.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 40.1% | 41.2% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00