Crystal Palacevs
Middlesbrough
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace 3-0 Middlesbrough
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 53.4% | 36.4% | -17.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.5% | 25.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 22.1% | 37.8% | 15.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00