Crystal Palacevs
Manchester City
SCHEDULEDEngland · Premier League · 8/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Crystal Palace are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Manchester City are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Manchester City hold a 29.6-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 77.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.0% in the Premier League, while Manchester City holds the strongest overall chance at 71% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
71.0%
Model confidence
11.0%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20