GGOALVIO

England · Premier League · 8/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Mediumconfidence

Crystal Palace are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Manchester City are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Manchester City hold a 29.6-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 77.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.0% in the Premier League, while Manchester City holds the strongest overall chance at 71% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Manchester City

Probability

71.0%

Model confidence

11.0%

Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Crystal PalaceWLWWL

GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Manchester CityWWDLD

GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Crystal PalaceManchester City
50.0Attack84.2
49.1Defence70.2
43.0Form79.8
47.9Power77.5
0.89xG2.52
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