Crystal Palacevs
Manchester City
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 8/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.90 | 19.5% | 28.2% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 23.7% | 26.3% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.68 | 56.8% | 45.5% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40